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Electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft developer  (Santa Clara, Calif., U.S.), recently released its plans produce approximately 250 battery-electric air taxis in 2025 with production ramping up in following years.

“In our first year, we will build 250 aircraft, our second year will build 500 aircraft, our third year will build 650 aircraft and then we scale it up to around 2,000 aircraft per year,” CEO Adam Goldstein said in an interview with Reuters. 

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Archer is set to reveal its new aircraft, Midnight, at an open house on Nov. 16, where it will unveil the tech specs and show off a test flight. The four-passenger plus pilot vehicle will have an expected payload of 1,000+ pounds (454 kilograms). While the company didn’t disclose details, it was confirmed by CW that the aircraft will incorporate composites in some way, like sister aircraft Maker — to manufacture Maker, the company is working with both Hexcel (Stamford, Conn., U.S.) and FACC AG (Ried im Innkreis, Austria), for prepreg materials and lightweight aerostructure components, respectively.

“We now have more than 50% of our suppliers for our bill-of-materials selected, based on cost, with that being made up of global leaders in the design, development and manufacturing of aircraft component,” the company told Airframer.com. “We are excited by the significant progress we’ve made in securing world-class suppliers for Midnight that will support us in meeting our key design and operational specifications that will deliver on our mission and business objectives.”

Despite the company’s expectations, several sources suggest that “certification looks to be a major obstacle,” not just for Archer, but for several other key players in the urban air mobility (UAM) market as well. For example, according to Reuters, Archer aims to certify Midnight by the end of 2024, though the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is still in the process of drawing up certification rules. Moreover, the FAA has defined eVTOLs as “powered-lift aircraft” rather than small airplanes, which means establishing a whole new set of rules and definitions. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) also announced publication of proposed rules for the operation of air taxis in cities at this year’s Farnborough International Air Show, though the  was open to public consultation until the end of September.

Adding onto this, JP Morgan analyst Bill Peterson notes, “In terms of aircraft production, we have estimated in our Archer model ~20 units in 2025. We are not negative on the space, but think it will take a little longer to play out with the ramp not as steep as these companies had projected in their SPAC decks from over a year ago.” Archer shares have also fallen 54% so far this year.

Despite this forecast, Archer appears intent on advancing Maker. After earning its Special Airworthiness Certification last year, in July 2022 the company completed the second of three key test flights, and in August received an order for 100 eVTOL aircraft from United Airlines.