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Embraer publishes 20-year commercial aviation market outlook

The annual report presents analyses of global influences and trends in seven world regions that impact the demand for new aircraft, and how airlines can respond with more flexible and resilient fleet strategies.

Grace Nehls
Edited by:  Grace Nehls
Senior Managing Editor, ÂÌñÏ×ÆÞ and Products Finishing

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Source | Embraer

(São José dos Campos, Brazil) has published “Market Outlook 2025,” its annual 20-year forecast for commercial aircraft deliveries in the sub-150-seat category.

The report estimates 10,500 orders for new jets and turboprops through 2044. It also presents analyses of global influences and trends in seven world regions that impact the demand for new aircraft. Because of its growing prominence in commercial aviation, statistics for China are detailed separately in this year’s market outlook for the first time.

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The document also analyzes demand for cargo aircraft, including a forecast for passenger-to-freighter conversions.

The overall forecast for the number of new sub-150-seat aircraft remains almost unchanged from Embraer’s previous estimate. Arjan Meijer, Embraer president and CEO of Commercial Aviation, attributes the consistency of the estimate to the longevity of social, supply chain and geopolitical trends Embraer identified during the pandemic.

“Five years after the onset of the pandemic, many of the structural changes it triggered have proven to be quite long-lasting,” says Meijer. “In our first post-pandemic market outlook, we highlighted the transition from globalization to a more polarized geopolitical outlook. Today, as countries and regions pursue greater strategic autonomy, the demand for regional access will continue to grow. We believe mixed fleets that combine small and large narrowbody aircraft are essential for that long-term growth. They provide the versatility needed to better match capacity with demand, expand networks and support national and regional development goals.”

Embraer shares some of the highlights of its 20-year commercial market outlook below:

  • World passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) is forecast to grow 3.9% annually through 2044. China will lead among seven global regions. The annual RPK regional growth rate is ranked as follows: 5.7% China; 4.7% Latin America; 4.4% Africa; 4.4% Middle East; 4.1% Asia Pacific; 3.1% Europe and CIS; 2.4% North America.
  • The RPK share by the end of 2044: 39% Asia Pacific; 37% Europe and North America.
  • Global demand for new aircraft with up to 150 seats: 10,500 units, 8,720 jets and 1,780 turboprops.
  • Market value of all new aircraft: $680 billion.
  • Jet deliveries — 8,720 (% share) — by region: 2,680 North America (30.7%); 1,990 Europe and CIS (22.8%); 1,500 China (17.2%); 1,050 Asia Pacific (12.1%); 770 Latin America (8.8%); 380 Africa (4.4%); 350 Middle East (4.0%).
  • Turboprop deliveries — 1,780 (% share) — by region: 640 Asia Pacific (36.0%); 280 North America (15.7%); 260 Europe and CIS (14.6%); 220 Africa (12.4%); 200 China (11.2%); 160 Latin America (9.0%); 20 Middle East (1.1%).

The complete Embraer “Market Outlook 2025” can be .

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