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So, if, in fact, automotive OEMs not named BMW are serious about using composites in quantities that — to us — might represent the next Great Composites Expansion, who is going to do the actual work required to make it happen? Where will the technical brain-power and manpower come from? Who can provide parts in the quantities the auto industry requires? Which processes will be used? How will all this be integrated into the automotive supply chain?

I used to think that the automotive Tier 1 suppliers would be handed the job, but aside from activity at companies such as Magna, Continental Structural Plastics and Faurecia, it’s difficult to tell how much legwork Tier 1s are doing. That leaves a few possibilities, as far as I can see.

First, maybe it’s too much to expect that one type of supplier can meet the automotive industry’s composites needs. Perhaps a cooperative venture is required, involving resin suppliers, fiber suppliers, fabricators and Tier 1s. There is some evidence to support this, particularly on the materials side, where resin and fiber suppliers already supply technical know-how to a variety of automotive OEMs.

Second, perhaps we are on the verge of the emergence of a disruptive technology — like, for example, liquid compression molding — that will make composites unbelievably attractive to automotive OEMs. Or, perhaps Google or Apple are developing disruptive vehicles that will transform how we think about transportation, and manufacturing for transportation.

Third, we might be on the cusp of a Pretty Good Composites Expansion, one in which we’ll see composites consumed in moderate volumes and only in mid-level to high-end cars. Not the end of the world, but definitely lacking the satisfaction of that full-blown Great Composites Expansion.